Seven OPEC+ members are likely to raise oil production quotas as Gulf countries are reeling from the situation in the Middle East, analysts told AFP.

Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other members of the enlarged Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) met yesterday to discuss quotas for August.

OPEC+ will likely continue “to unwind the production cuts at the same pace like in the previous months”, said Commodity Analyst Giovanni Staunovo at the Swiss bank UBS, predicting an increase of 188,000 barrels per day. “But for now, production is probably still below the group’s targets,” Staunovo told AFP. Between the first quarter of 2026 and May, combined production by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait – three of the seven countries raising their quotas – fell by some six million barrels per day, OPEC data have shown.

COHESION AT STAKE

“For next year, everybody is anticipating a surplus,” Analyst Jorge Leon at Rystad Energy, told AFP.

Rebuilding the inventories that countries tapped during the conflict should help absorb the flows at first, but producers may face a strong downward pressure on prices later on.

And OPEC+, already weakened by the departure of the United Arab Emirates from the group in May, will have to manage sliding prices while members will push for production increases.

Iraq, in particular, has asked the cartel to raise production quotas to make up for the shortfall it incurred during the situation in the Middle East, the Iraqi Oil Ministry said in late June.

But Hansen said the need for a higher quota “is not imminent” as production volumes are still far from previous levels.

“Iraq’s request may become part of the 2027 capacity review, where production baselines will be examined,” he added.

At the end of the year, the OPEC+ is indeed due to reassess members’ quotas based on their ability to produce more, which could become a thorny issue.

Source: Borneobulletin