Coffee exports are showing positive signs right from the first month of 2026, opening up promising prospects for the entire industry.

According to data from the Viet Nam Customs Department, in January, Viet Nam's coffee exports reached US$1.08 billion, an increase in both volume and value.

Coffee has also surpassed seafood to become the second-highest-value export item in the agricultural sector, second only to wood and wood products. The Viet Nam Coffee and Cocoa Association estimates that Viet Nam's coffee production in the 2025-2026 crop year will increase by about 10% compared to the previous year. However, on a global scale, many organizations predict that the coffee market will gradually shift from a shortage to a rebalancing phase, and may even fall into a surplus, thereby creating downward pressure on prices, especially for Arabica coffee.

The World Bank also forecasts that global coffee production will increase from 175.4 million bags in the 2024-2025 crop year to 179 million bags in the 2025-2026 crop year.

Against this backdrop, Arabica coffee prices are expected to fall by 13% in 2026 and a further 5% in 2027 due to a recovery in production in Colombia. Robusta coffee prices are also projected to cool down, albeit more slowly, with a decline of around 2% per year.

Although the rebalancing scenario is supported by many organizations, the coffee market in 2026 still faces many risks, as supply recovery is uneven, global coffee consumption demand continues to increase, and the trend towards traceability and transparency in the supply chain is becoming increasingly stringent.

Therefore, the coffee market in 2026 carries both expectations of lower prices and requires close monitoring of long-term fundamental factors, as prices are not solely dependent on seasonal factors.

Source: VTV